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In our recent webinar, Tim Kellett was joined by business-to-business specialist Steve Herbert. They met with HR professionals to explore how the recent UK Budget will shape HR practices and employee well-being. Key topics included the rise in the national living wage, increased employer National Insurance contributions, and changes to inheritance tax on pensions. Here are some of the key insights shared and practical steps employers can take to navigate these changes effectively.

The full webinar is available on demand via the link below.

The general landscape on pay

Tim Kellett shared a PESTLE analysis, outlining the factors affecting pay and reward decisions. The webinar took place on the day of the US election, against a backdrop of global instability with conflicts and wars and political uncertainty driving up the cost of materials in the UK. The new Labour government is shaping domestic politics with policy decisions that include public sector pay deals and increases to the National Living Wage and National Insurance rates.

The Bank of England has cut interest rates for the second time this year, affecting people’s ability and willingness to borrow. Socially, generational attitudes to health, careers, and rewards are shaping benefits take up. Technologically, digital transformation and the growth in AI is having an impact on businesses planning jobs, products and services, affecting the labour market.

HR continues to navigate constant legal changes, including The EU Pay Transparency Directive and the widening of reporting to cover ethnicity and disability pay gap figures. Tax and the changes to pensions will also shape pay awards going into 2025.

ESG continues to be a priority area for employers, with climate change affecting consumer buying habits and affecting employee benefits, with electric cars being more widely available.

Our recent UK Reward Management Survey highlights the biggest influences on future pay awards and The Budget could affect a number of the most important influences.

Key Budget Impacts on Employers

1. National Living Wage Increase

Over the past six years, the National Living Wage increases have tracked 15.5 per cent higher than the median pay awards. This can create challenges around pay compression, which organisations find difficult to manage within a budget. Going forward, this increase is expected to impact pay structures, particularly around pay compression—where the pay gap between lower and higher wage earners narrows. While this is good news for low-income workers, employers may need to reassess their pay structures to ensure fair and motivating compensation across all levels. Some organisations have had to limit pay for other employee groups (e.g. support staff) due to a lack of budget.

The recent announcement makes that differentiation in pay harder to achieve. The national living wage has increased by around seven per cent and the real living wage by around five per cent.

Employee Benefits recently conducted a poll revealing that 64 per cent of HR professionals felt that the real living wage increase does not go far enough to support employees. People think there is more to come, with the government pledging to achieving a genuine living wage for working people, but that will impact the balance of affordability facing a lot of employers.

2. Trends in Pay Awards

Paydata’s analysis of the external pay market showed that in 2023, excluding the effect of the national living wage, the most common pay increase was about five per cent. However, 2024 awards have been slightly more conservative, at four to five per cent increase. Four per cent has become more common throughout the year, despite sustained predictions of five per cent for this year. Employers are balancing all this against their internal budgets while trying to stay competitive to attract and retain talent.

The role of out of cycle pay awards is also reducing in light of higher pay awards, after reaching a peak in 2022 when the labour market was particularly buoyant and retention challenges were high. Anecdotally, people have observed that as pay increases have been high, out of cycle increases have been kept in check. However, given that pay awards are starting to reduce, that might provide an upward pressure on the use of out of cycle pay awards in the year ahead.

Typically, the latest employer pay predictions for 2025 are one per cent lower than what they offered last year; if they offered five per cent this year, they are looking at four per cent in 2025. A small number are looking at reducing their pay award by two per cent. Predictions are quite evenly balanced between three and four per cent awards. Only 12 per cent of award predictions are expected to be above four per cent. Post-Budget, it will be interesting to see if these numbers change as organisations define how they will balance budgets and affordable pay rises – let us know your thoughts via our latest pulse survey.

3. External economic landscape

Over the past five years, inflation has increased 3.7 per cent higher than annual median pay budgets. Some organisations report that employees still expect them to catch up on recent years’ price increases. When inflation was at 10 per cent at one point, employers were expected to keep pace with these levels by their employees, and some employees believe there is catching up to do with reward levels.

Inflation has been falling over 2024 to around two per cent, which should ease some of the pressure on 2025 pay budgets. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasted relatively stable levels of inflation in the long term in March; but some of the measures put in place in the Budget may have a short-term impact and increase price points slightly in the next couple of years.

This is in the wake of a half-decade of change, including Brexit, a pandemic, wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a cost-of-living crisis contributing to widespread industrial action.

 4. Increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions

Steve Herbert homed in on the most notable Budget change: the rise in employer National Insurance contributions from 13.8% to 15%. This will markedly drive up costs for businesses, especially as there is a reduced threshold for employees to be eligible for this increase. Those with a high proportion of low-paid employees will be particularly affected.

Employers should consider strategies to offset this increase, such as implementing salary sacrifice schemes. Rachel Reeves has acknowledged that, “businesses will now have to make a choice, whether they absorb through efficiency or productivity gains, whether it will be through lower profits or perhaps lower wage growth.”

The Office for Budget Responsibility suggests that 60 per cent of the increase will be passed on either via higher wage costs or via lower returns for the consumer. Either way, UK companies are facing critical decisions as a result.

However, there have been improvements to the Employment Allowance. This will increase to £10,500 in April 2026 and the £100k eligibility threshold is being removed. 50 per cent of employers will not see any National Insurance increase. Salary sacrifice is still possible and even more beneficial to employers now, to counter these rate increases.

5. Changes to Inheritance Tax on Pensions

Steve made the point that this Budget is the biggest expansion in taxes in modern times – at around the same level as it was after the Second World War.

Starting in April 2027, pensions will be included in inheritance tax calculations, a change likely to impact employee retirement planning. This adjustment may also affect employee share plans, which employers often use to enhance loyalty and retention so employers should clearly communicate these changes to employees.

Steve also noted that unpopular policies introduced by Labour over the summer, including the winter fuel allowance, meant that they have had to park other measures around pensions.

Strategic Recommendations for Employers

To address these shifts and support employee financial well-being, employers should focus on:

  1. Adapting to National Wage increases - Employers must ensure compliance with new wage standards and prevent salary sacrifice schemes from reducing employee pay below minimum levels. Reviewing pay structures to manage pay compression effectively will be key to maintaining a balanced and fair compensation strategy.
  2. Leveraging salary sacrifice schemes - To manage the rise in National Insurance costs, employers can explore salary sacrifice schemes, which allow employees to exchange a portion of their salary for non-cash benefits, ultimately reducing the employer’s and employee’s National Insurance obligations. These schemes can help offset the increased costs and provide a tax-efficient benefit to employees.
  3. Providing financial, mental and physical wellbeing support - With the cost-of-living pressures and the upcoming inheritance tax on pensions, supporting employee financial well-being has never been more essential. Offering resources, guidance, and perhaps even financial planning tools can help employees manage these changes more effectively.
  4. Employment Rights Bill 2024 - The Bill proposes once in a generation changes to employee rights in the UK and puts the onus on employers to manage this. Many are still processing what these changes would mean for their business.
  5. Equalities (Race & Disparity) Bill 2024 - The bill, yet to be published, deals with equal pay and pay gap reporting, that will signal greater transparency around pay frameworks. This will complement the EU Pay Directive’s objectives to continue to drive conversations around fair and equitable decisions around pay.

Looking Forward

The changes introduced in the Budget present both challenges and opportunities. Employers who proactively adjust their HR strategies to manage wage increases, rising contributions, and tax implications will be better positioned to support their workforce’s financial well-being and remain competitive in a dynamic labour market.

The opportunity to create a fairer labour market with strengthened worker rights from day one may translate into an improved score in Gallup’s global Employee Engagement Index. The United Kingdom is currently ranked in 33rd place, showing the potential for change to drive greater productivity and satisfaction at work. Thank you to Steve for his insights. Get in touch if we can help you process what the October Budget means for your organisation and its people strategy.


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