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We recently ran our Pulse Survey to scope early indications of 2025 pay awards. The survey captured early thoughts of where pay budgets are going in the year ahead, but with a new government and no definitive economic plans in motion as yet, we would like to caveat the results by saying it is early days and plans may be subject to change.

We will be keeping a close eye on developments in the coming months to see how the situation evolves. Here are the projections on pay so far.

The changing landscape of pay

Between the financial crisis of 2008 and up until the pandemic, pay levels had remained stable and tracked inflation at around two per cent. This consistent pay award up until 2021 then faced numerous market pressures, causing pay awards to hit their highest levels for over a decade in 2023.

The upward pressure of inflation

In 2023, inflation was the key driver for higher pay awards being a necessity. The cost of living crisis put huge strain on pay packets for employees, while employers struggled to balance rising operational costs and offering meaningful pay awards.

However, inflation has been falling since early 2023. In May 2024, in line with government promises, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) finally hit the two per cent target. This eases pressures for late 2024 and 2025 pay award decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee expects that inflation will be between two and three per cent in the next three years, suggesting that pay awards may fall back to pre-pandemic levels.

The cumulative effect

Overall, cumulative annual pay awards (including out of cycle pay increases) show that over the past decade annual awards have consistently tracked higher than CPI, until 2023 when the CPI surpassed them by 0.6 per cent.

However, this picture will of course be nuanced depending on certain sectors. When pay rises have been below the level of inflation, they can be considered ‘real-terms pay cuts’ as prices are rising quicker than yearly wage increases. The impact is that employees’ incomes will not go as far. As growth in the public sector significantly trailed private sector, this was exacerbated by the cost of living crisis and led to widespread strike action.

The picture on pay 2023 – 2024

The median pay award in 2023 was 5.0 per cent, increasing by one per cent from July 2022 predictions. However, according to Paydata’s Pay Database, 2024 pay awards are broadly the same or marginally less than predicted in July 2023, at 4.5 per cent.

Out of cycle pay increases, excluding those awarded to reflect promotions, became popular post-pandemic. The competitive labour market resulted in a rise in out-of-cycle pay awards after 2020. These ad hoc increases when used to bridge the gap between pay awards and market pressures, or to retain employees, continue to risk undermining the pay framework and budget certainty for HR.

Early pay predictions for next year

Looking towards pay trends for 2025, the current pay predictions suggest that the median pay award across all sectors will be 3.5 per cent. Overall, pay awards are currently predicted to reduce by one per cent next year compared to 2024.

When looking at both 2024 and 2025 pay awards on an individual-employer basis, around a third of organisations are paying the same award for both 2024 and 2025. The remaining two thirds predict a median year-on-year reduction of 1.3 per cent, within a range of -0.5 per cent and two per cent.

The effect of the National Living Wage

In 2024, the median pay award for those affected by the National Living Wage was one per cent higher than pay awards offered by employers who are not affected by the NLW. This  suggests the National Living Wage contributed an additional one per cent to affected employers’ overall pay bills. As a result, many employers are carrying out compression analysis to help maintain competitive pay levels.

There is also the question of how much of an influence the next National Living Wage increase will have on employers’ 2025 pay budget decisions. 21 per cent of organisations indicate that a median additional 1.8 per cent of payroll could be spent on the National Living Wage, within a range of 0.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

How to determine pay awards

In 2024, pay awards were predominantly awarded on an across-the-board basis. When asked about how 2025 pay awards will be distributed, more employers will use a combination of across-the-board and individual pay increases. This raises the question about how to make pay decisions fairly and consistently.

Factors driving pay actions

Respondents to our Pulse Survey predicted that pay actions in 2025 are most likely to be driven by external relativities. 58 per cent think that employee turnover will stay the same, which may help stabilise pay award decisions over the next year.

This reflects our UK Reward Management Survey results, where 68 per cent cite external relativities as the main driver of their pay actions. This was followed by 53 per cent saying that internal relativities are driving their pay decisions; while 39 per cent are targeting high performing people with pay increases.

Get in touch

If you have any questions about planning your pay review for this year and scoping budgets for 2025, feel free to call us to discuss. You can also join us at our HR and Reward Conference 2024, taking place in central London on 17th September. Register to attend this popular event in the HR calendar, where you can expect to hear from expert speakers on topical HR and Reward issues, helping you fine tune your total reward strategy.


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